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Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super undecided

I've never seen an election where choice between the lesser of evils was more rampant. The over-priced talking head tell us deciding a winner is all about the delegates. So, without further doo-doo, How to untangle the politics of Super Tuesday primaries.

In each party, more than 80 percent of the total delegates needed to secure the nomination are up for grabs. And the system for allocating delegates is even more complicated than that of the Electoral College, with delegates awarded mostly by congressional district.
The dems are fighting over 15 primaries & 7 caucuses. All those delegates up for grabs are allocated proportionally, so even after this day's dust has settled, there may still be no clear dem winner given the poll splits between billary and the obamanator. The repubs squabble over 15 primaries, 5 caususes and one old school convention (my personal fave). The rules in 8 of those states are simple: winner takes all. No proportioning here. The remaining thirteen states get carved up. After it's all over but the shouting, the repubs will know if it's mittens or maverick unless huckleberry gets re-born.

To complicate both sides, another variable is whether the contests are open or closed, meaning that, if open, anyone in any party can cross the aisle and vote in the other camps election. Can you say, "skewed results?" Bottom line:
At this point, "it's not an organization game, it's a momentum game," says GOP pollster Whit Ayres. "There's no way to be sufficiently organized in all the Super Tuesday states."
Love 'em or hate 'em, get out and vote!

Update: BMW has his thumbnail sketch of the viable scrappers. HotAir posts Hannity asking a deer-in-the-headlights group of obamanites the obvious question. MM continues to hammer away at 'open borders' McCain, and former Fred! head, Rusty, now stumps for Mittens. Huffypoo simply gnaws its foot off.

Updated Update: predictions, anyone?