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Monday, April 06, 2020

Morning Coffee

Almost 287% Wuhan Corona Virus-free. Because without a hard numerator/denominator, it's all just academic chicken scratch.

Analyst Discovers a Major Flaw in IHME Model Used by White House; Actual Numbers Are a Fraction of Expected
"Davis writes that if we’re going to shut down the entire nation’s economy to “flatten the curve” based on the projections of a single model, it shouldn’t be too much to ask that the model approximate reality when it comes to hospitalizations."
Models are notoriously inaccurate. IE: economic forecasts (unexpectedly!), global warming, etc. Yet, gross over-reactions are often the result. And people frequently prefer tribalism to rational debate about these numbers. I get called everything but a child of God when I simply ask, "How is it every year tens of millions of flu infections, hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations for flu, and tens of thousands of flu deaths, do not overwhelm our medical system, or our economy, but this mysterious Wuhan Corona Virus with far fewer numbers has plunged the entire world into medieval darkness?"

"Shut up!," they yell.


The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself?

HMM: Memo Claims Your Stimulus Check May Not Arrive Until August.
"Shovel-ready was not as shovel-ready as we expected." *snort, chuckle*




Coronavirus: Will the media ever admit the failure of doomsday projections?
"While the cumulative totals of cases and deaths continue rising, the media are doing a lousy job of reporting the most important numbers: How many COVID-19 patients are currently hospitalized? How many new patients are admitted to the hospital each day, and how many patients are discharged? The reason for “social distancing” policies was to slow the spread of the disease, to “flatten the curve” of the pandemic and avoid overwhelming the hospital system. We have reason to believe that these policies are succeeding in that regard, and something else may explain why we may be averting the “apex” crisis: Chloroquine. The anti-malarial drug which Trump famously touted as a “game-changer” in the fight against coronavirus is now being prescribed to thousands of patients, and anecdotal reports indicate that the drug is effective. The number of COVID-19 hospitalizations may have been reduced by this treatment and, if so, chloroquine was probably a variable not factored into the models that projected a shortage of ventilators and ICU beds.

We are still a long way from the point at which we can evaluate the course of this pandemic with the safety of hindsight. It may be many weeks before it is considered safe to hold large gatherings at church or sporting events. We are doing better than the doomsday models predicted, however, and this is good news. When will the media report that news?"
Spoiler alert: It doesn't hurt Trump, so 'No."

From J.J. Sefton at AoSHQ:
"RUFKM?! Look, there's no doubt that people have died and are going to die. But to invoke two seminal events in American history over something like this, sad though it may be, is just manifestly irresponsible and utterly horrendous. Frankly, I am sick and friggin' tired of dredging up last year's statistics for deaths from all causes that in each and every category put Chinese Lung AIDS virtually at the bottom of the list. And don't get me started on Anthony Fauci. He's not exactly a great communicator and doesn't quite grasp the nature of the press and what they are there for. That said, he's been a creature of the Swamp for decades and as such has a vested interest in keeping his bureaucracy relevant, even if it means scaring the bejeezus out of the nation. A year from now, when we look at the death statistics, it's a fair bet that we will see a spike in suicides beginning in March that will far exceed that for Sino Sinus Syphilis. Meh, if you're unlucky enough to be in an area of Democrat influence, you could die from an infected toenail and you better believe the cause of death will be listed as Chi-Com coronavirus."

 
If you advocate baby murder, don't say an EFFING word about 'saving lives' during this pandemic.



I loved  National Geographic magazine as a kid. It took me to worlds I never imagined, but in its 21st century 'woke' incarnation, it's little more than an aggregator for Leftist intersectional talking points. This human-to-animal transmission will be considered fake news until proved not fake.



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