Believe it or don't, there are bloggers out there more astute than myself.
I'll let that sink in.
I saw this story referenced over at Vodka Dudes place (batman drunk & still relevant). It originally came from The Officer's Club. In a plausibly prophetic sort of way, the post lays out why Iran will get away with it's nuclear show down with the West. Here it is in its entirety:
Seven Lessons Iran has Learned from Operation Iraqi Freedom
7. The media is your friend: Iran has been much better about laying out its case for acquiring nuclear technology than Saddam ever was. Part of this is because of the frequent news conferences they hold. The Western media has been iffy on covering this too much because of the mandatory Jew-hate in each speech, but if war seems likely on the horizon, you can bet that they will be amplifying Iran's warnings and screaming for appeasements.
6. Appeal to the "international community." Like it or not, the people most directly threatened by a nuclear Iran are Europeans. Sure, there are US troops in Bagram and Baghdad, but if Iran goes nuclear, they become the "trip wire" that the 2nd ID serves as on Korea's DMZ. Sure, a nuke could take out some of them, but it would trigger "total war" against Iran. Europe is the target here, with an Islamist insurgency forming that would be protected by an Iranian nuclear shield. Persians, historically, loathe societies they see as weak, but are easily willing to exploit them if they can. Europe seems perfectly willing to negotiate until they have nukes pointed at them, and Iran seems to be comfortable with this as well. Saddam was very bad at this, and preferred isolation to diplomatic engagement.
5. Use the economy, stupid. Yes, Iran threatened to put economic sanctions on itself if it was referred to the security council. That would be ridiculous if it weren’t so possible. Iran has plenty of domestic energy, and sanctions would only harm customers like Russia and China. Saddam was more focused on himself, I believe, than Iraq as a nation. He used the Oil for Food program to sap the Iraqi economy, turning the country into a drying husk before we invaded. Iran can wield their economy as weapon on the international scene.
4. Build up the fanatic side of the military. Saddam's "elite" Republican Guard proved to be the only thing standing between Baghdad and the 3rd Infantry partly because they were furiously devoted to the Hussein Regime and the Baath Party. Iran sees this, and is building up their "suicide brigades" for domestic defense. I think the mullahs are aware that the conscript side of their army/navy/air force probably won’t stand and fight if the US invades, so they need a plan "B".
3. Divide and conquer. Iran knows that Europe poses no serious military threat to them, and that any action would require a NATO (read: US) action, their best bet is to make side deals to turn member countries against each other. Saddam was very successful at this by leveraging France and Germany against the US. Whether the mullahs can pull this off or not is questionable- France and Germany have the Muslim minorities that could cause domestic political problems, and are in range of Iranian missiles- they may be less likely to split apart on this issue.
2. Deter War. Remember the media's insane predictions of body counts before OEF/OIF? Imagine the media speculation about total war with Iran. Iran can shape this information operation by showing off its military at every opportunity. This will no doubt influence the way they are reported in the media, and questions will be raised like: can the US even invade Iran? They have 300 divisions of troops, its irresponsible to invade with only 3! Facts won't really matter here, 300 divisions on paper doesn't translate to operational capacity on the ground.
1. Get that Nuke Tech! No country has ever been invaded that has possessed nuclear weapons. Saddam kept the capacity to acquire WMD, but never (I think) thought the imperialist cowboy president would get around his ingenious scheme of UN manipulation. Suppose Iran is invaded, and the regime vacates Tehran, but leave a ticking nuke there. A week later, it goes off, vaporizing a couple combat brigades. Once Iran gets this (or can bluff they have it) the rules change. Iran knows this, and is frantically pushing their nuke technology forward. Tick tock.
